Why xG alone will not find your next striker

Every scout has been burned by an xG outlier. The number was glowing, the transfer flopped.

This post is about the layers you need on top of xG to make a confident call.

Quality of chances vs quality of finishing

xG measures the chance. xG per shot and non-penalty goals minus xG measure the finisher.

Look for sustained outperformance across multiple seasons and competition levels.

Role context matters

A poacher in a dominant team will inflate. A pressing forward in a mid-table side will look quieter than they are.

• Touches in the box per 90
• Off-ball runs tracked
• Pressures in the final third

The scouting workflow

Start wide, narrow ruthlessly, then watch every relevant clip. Tools should accelerate that loop, not replace it.